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Conservative minority and possible reversal of May 1, 2020 OIC

7K views 200 replies 14 participants last post by  Buckmark 
#1 ·
Current polling is trending towards a Conservative minority government.

If the Liberals were able to place the May 1, 2020 OIC banning guns under a minority government, I would think a minority Conservative government could place their own OIC cancelling this?

Passing bills might be another matter in a minority government, but would at least we could expect this.
 
#2 ·
I fully expect a Conservative minority government. Sorry Joe … your buddy is going down. Not sure if O’Toole will repeal the gun ban. I’m sure he thinks it’s a total waste of time and money … but it may not look good for him in the following election. Just my Opinion.
 
#3 · (Edited)
I fully expect a Conservative minority government. Sorry Joe … your buddy is going down. Not sure if O’Toole will repeal the gun ban. I’m sure he thinks it’s a total waste of time and money … but it may not look good for him in the following election. Just my Opinion.
MY god what is wrong with you beyond getting old and yes I am cranky today :p. I f'n hate deer Justin was never my buddy and what is the good of a minority PC government think the block or NDP will ever side with them like the NDP did with the liberals .NOPE
I voted Liberal once and only once and had no choice old age at 67 would have starved me
NEVER count Justin out just look at what he has survived and should have been gone many many times.
I will only say he is gone after the votes are counted
IMO a minority for the PC is useless and will mean back to the polls real quick :(
Cheers
 
#4 ·
We've never had a PM like this for decades. There is a solid core that supports their party no matter what. The elections are not decided by them, but by the 10 to 15 percent that flip their vote.

In 2014, JT did some selfies, did the yoga hand stand, wore socks with Star Wars theme, emerged shirtless to photo-bomb wedding pictures, etc. and became popular. He gained the attention of millennials, and some people wanting legal cannabis. A bunch of scandals happened that had almost no impact on his support. He was re-elected in 2019.

Now, for whatever reason, his popularity is in decline. Not his political views, policies or promises, but his personality. Like a pop star, this 10 to 15 percent of his polled supporters have become disenchanted with him. I say this because if you look at the aggregate polling on 338canada they show a straight line for the trend in the last 10 days. That is highly unusual in politics. It normally reacts to policy, mistakes, pledges, etc, and it will go up and down, even along a trend. This time it's different. It's like every day another 100,000 millenials learn JT is no longer cool, and the news continues to spread from smart phone to smartphone. Eventually the number will hit the base of core Liberal support and not fall any further, but it hasn't stopped falling yet.
 
#5 ·
We've never had a PM like this for decades. There is a solid core that supports their party no matter what. The elections are not decided by them, but by the 10 to 15 percent that flip their vote.

In 2014, JT did some selfies, did the yoga hand stand, wore socks with Star Wars theme, emerged shirtless to photo-bomb wedding pictures, etc. and became popular. He gained the attention of millennials, and some people wanting legal cannabis. A bunch of scandals happened that had almost no impact on his support. He was re-elected in 2019.

Now, for whatever reason, his popularity is in decline. Not his political views, policies or promises, but his personality. Like a pop star, this 10 to 15 percent of his polled supporters have become disenchanted with him. I say this because if you look at the aggregate polling on 338canada they show a straight line for the trend in the last 10 days. That is highly unusual in politics. It normally reacts to policy, mistakes, pledges, etc, and it will go up and down, even along a trend. This time it's different. It's like every day another 100,000 millenials learn JT is no longer cool, and the news continues to spread from smart phone to smartphone. Eventually the number will hit the base of core Liberal support and not fall any further, but it hasn't stopped falling yet.
Agree to a point. But I think there are two provinces that decide most times not 10-15% that flip their votes

Cheers
 
#6 ·
Canada 338 polls , three hours ago.....
...CPC 34%
🔴
LPC 30%
🟠
NDP 24%
⚜️
BQ 7% (29% in Qc)
🟣
PPC 3%
🟢
GPC 2%
 
#7 ·
I’m just yankin’ your chain there, Joe. You may have only voted Liberal once … so you say … but your replies and defence of the Liberal party makes me think otherwise. A Conservative minority might not mean much to you, but it shows the swing in peoples support of that Commie Trudope. Regardless … we are in for a minority government. I would sooner it be the Cons than that Taliban loving POS. Yes … we will be back at the polls in less than 2 years.
 
#9 ·
My comments are not in defense of any party and YES it was once
My comments are based on what can a PC minority do alone and they will be useless not like they will get support from others like the liberals did even to stay in power
2 years less than that IMO. They need a majority and if the liberals get minority it is same old crap again
Cheers
 
#8 ·
The Amnesty Period ends April 30, 2022, so unless something is done, there will be thousands of people in possession of prohibited firearms. That leaves the new government with three choices to make within the first 7 months of their mandate:


  • allow the owners to become criminals unless they have deactivated or turned in their prohibited firearms for destruction, or
  • engage in the "buyback" program which the Liberals seem to have begun, or
  • rescind the May 1, 2020 order in council.

I can't see the Conservatives doing the first 2 options, so the third seems most likely.

The chances of another election being called or forced in under 7 months would be unlikely. The Liberals will be looking at a possible leadership review given JT's popularity is no longer an asset. Some believe Mark Carney is preparing to move in. There has always been Chrystia Freeland waiting in the wings.
 
#10 · (Edited)
Nope not IMO it will be No. 4 leave it alone as they always do and implement grandfathering again and stupid gun owners will be happy thinking they got some dam win
Been there too many times in the past and their promises have never been kept when it comes to firearms especially reversing passed bills etc
Are we not forgetting 83% of canadians support this ban. It would be suicide for the PC to roll it back for what few 100K gun owners that even care remember we could not even get 200K on the petitions against the ban
I will tell you how foolish some gun owners think I know many that want this grandfathering so they get 12(x) on their dam RPAL card. I kid you not they think it is some cool status symbol. If they only knew. Like stranded on a island and looking at the most beautiful woman in the world in a cage and you have no key and cannot even get near her
That is what it is like owning grandfathered guns. NO more for me this time
Cheers
 
#13 ·
I cannot see the PCs reversing the OIC entirely. Far, far too politically risky and even with a majority they would not want to risk losing any support. I can see them going the grandfather route though as Joe suggests.

I can imagine the NDP (and/or the Bloc) getting behind the PCs in a minority situation though. Lets face it, it is the only way they can really have any effect on public policy in Canada at the federal level since they will never win a majority on their own. Neither the NDP or Bloc have any loyalty to the Liberals at the end of the day.
 
#14 ·
When JT looses the election to the PC , I'd say the libtards will dump his arse and try rebuild their image , JT is dangerous not only to Kandaharar OOOPS Canada as a whole but his image and Idiotics are ruining the libtards , why are MP 's not re-offerring and stepping aside this election on liberal side more than seen in a decade or two , it's because they are bailing like rats on a sinking ship and JT is driving it into a reef of PC shark infested waters to feast on his failures , even Singaling Dingaling won't be able to prop his arse up this round , not even with two hands up his arse !
 
#15 ·
I can see O'toole pulling off a majority on sept 20 myself. The tides are shifting and look at the provincial results we just had. Who'd have thunk it a month and a half ago?
 
#17 ·
However, an Order in Council is an executive branch action. It is not a bill. It does not require any votes or backers in a minority government. The Liberals did theirs in a minority government. Not with NDP help, just executive powers. If an OIC establishes a ruling, another OIC can strip it away.
 
#18 ·
However, an Order in Council is an executive branch action. It is not a bill. It does not require any votes or backers in a minority government. The Liberals did theirs in a minority government. Not with NDP help, just executive powers. If an OIC establishes a ruling, another OIC can strip it away.
You're right !! Hopefully they realize that
 
#19 ·
Another way it could play out, which could take too long, is getting the secrecy lifted from the "evidence" which was supposedly the rationale for the May 1, 2020 OIC. This is what the CCFR has been challenging in court. From what I understand, they got to a point where a judge agreed that one person, which I believe was a judge, should be able to see the evidence the Liberals had for which the emergency measure of this May 1, 2020 OIC was based. There has to be a reason for these measures, not arbitrary action. The government over ruled the judge.

Liberals invoke S.39, refuse to provide evidence - Canadian Coalition for Firearm Rights

Legal systems move like molasses, but if the new government were to lift that order blocking the evidence, the outcome would likely (we don't know, but it smells like the cupboard is bare) make a good rationale for revoking the May 1, 2020 OIC.
 
#27 · (Edited)
This is the last updates I can find on the OIC legal action tracker on nutz. I have not been following it since have made my mind up it is not worth it
July 10th 2021
sure...lots been going on, we lost the injunction because it is almost impossible to prove irreparable emotional and cultural harm without a reasonable doubt, many people simply do not understand the attachment of gun culture members to their guns or culture, but since we knew we were suffering such harms, we had to try our best.

The applicants who moved for a rule 302 motion (to have more than one decision reviewed at one time, including the RCMP decisions) lost that motion, the matter is complex, technically the RCMP isnt a tribunal and their "technical assesments" are not reviewable...all apparently quite true but none the less, someone has to be responsible and judge them on their unlawful violation of our rights, this is a fight for another time and place I suppose .

It has been an uphill battle of loose, loose, loose so far---THEN a ray of hope on may 27, 2021--the judge ruled that we had won our rule 317/318 motions, in part, and the Government could not just say the evidence is confidential trust us, she ruled that they had delayed the proceedings and to hand over the documents to her within 30 days so she can decide if they were cabinet confidential or should be released...keep in mind we submitted these written motions in Dec 2020...so like 5 months later..

June 15th 2021 the AGC obstructed and in contempt of the Judges ruling blocked her (and us) from receiving our disclosure with a certificate from the clerk of the Privy.

I have brought a motion to strike the affidavit of Claudie Perrault and a motion of contempt against the AGC... I'd like the motion to be heard ASAP, there is a case conference about it July 16th....

who knows what remedies are available to us, because I do believe that what has happened to us during this court process has been most un-usual, un-just and un-necessary.

August 24th 2021

When is the next court date on the ban? We are waiting for??? Last I heard the government was hiding behind Parliament privilege.
 
#28 ·
I agree with nomad on a possible conservative majority My buddy and I play golf together at brunell which is a hot spot for tourists. It’s very busy and we always get paired up with other people. In the last two weeks we’ve played with numerous people from Ontario and Quebec and they all say the same thing, Trudeau has to go. Most don’t think much of O’toole but prefer him 100% over the liberals.
SO VOTE TURDBOY OUT!!!
 
#29 ·
Sydney Victoria and cape breton canso ridings are both polling as leaning CPC. Both ridings have been in liberal hands since 2000. People seem to be pulling their collective heads out of their arses this time. I am giddier than Bill Blair at a distillery right about now lol.
 
#34 ·
I never thought NS would swing the way they did. Trudeau is sinking faster than a rock. Could very well be a majority government for the Conservatives. Every day his ratings are going down. My prediction is a minority government for O’Toole … but we will have to wait and see.
 
#35 ·
I never thought NS would swing the way they did. Trudeau is sinking faster than a rock. Could very well be a majority government for the Conservatives. Every day his ratings are going down. My prediction is a minority government for O’Toole … but we will have to wait and see.
AGREE But I have learned never get excited and never count the liberals out
Cheers
 
#40 · (Edited)
I don't know what to think.

Erin O’Toole promises to keep Liberal assault rifle ban, directly contradicting his own platform - National | Globalnews.ca

Either he means something specific by "assault weapons" and this is code we're supposed to understand, or he has just betrayed the sport shooting community.
Sorry but I have to smile
I hope 1000% I am wrong and will be the first one to say I am and I am sorry for what may seem to be an attack on what you say on this subject since it is not and if taken that way you have my sincere apology
I have heard the same stuff for over 50 years and every time they ( the PC) will look like they are doing something for gun owners during the campaign, get elected and then forget about us and IMO he will be no different

Even if he wanted to I cannot see how 83% of canadians who want it will allow him.

So what do you think now. I quote you
You keep saying the past pattern predicts the future and it's never that simple.

He is no different than justin on this topic
How many votes will I get by doing it vs how many will I lose

Cheers
 
#42 · (Edited)
Seen that earlier this morning and not the CCFR just saying it now the PC is pushing it. The stick handling has begun after he seen the fall out from gun owners taking their votes back and freaking out
The PC must think firearm owners not only fell off the turnip truck but 6 coming behind ran over us.
Yes he was talking about something that happened 44 years ago that no one gives a crap about when Justin made him stumble and spit out what he did . OMG are we really that gullible

Like nutz members said today

The NFA and CCFR are irrelevant , only O'toole can speak on this

I'm sorry, but unless you had a beer with the guy after the debate last night, you have no way of knowing that. O'Toole is lying to someone, and you are interpreting his meanings to get the end result you desire, namely that he is lying to the other guy, not you.

He's already confused about what he lied about or not.
Erin O'Toole is a progressive. Progressives are NOT PRO GUN. CGNers need to get this through their heads. Have you ever met a progressive that supported gun rights?
I tried telling you guys that this fuccer was going to throw us under the bus...

Reporters asked him several times if he would repeal the current gun-ban OIC. He hedged. He did not say YES!!!
 
#43 ·
If I were to place a bet, I would bet the PCs will not repeal the OIC if elected to a majority. They will likely do the grandfather thing, like with prohibited handguns, etc. That's the best outcome gun owners can hope for I think. And Yes, I know it would not do anyone any good. Quite the opposite really.

To repeal the OIC would piss off far, far too many PC supporters and they simply would not do that. Their goal after all is to get power and then keep it - at any cost. Just like the Liberals.

Still, I hope they do win a majority. Just to see the end of Trudeau. He's had his shot and f-ed it up royally in my opinion. Time for someone else to get a chance.
 
#48 · (Edited)
We are on the same page again :)
They can call me negative, an idiot, no backbone , the big one a LIBERAL :rolleyes:place me on ignore whatever here but I have invested a hell of a lot more money and time for a hell of a lot more years in this fight than the ones saying it and IMO have never won even one battle in 50 plus years even when the PC were in power so why would I think differently
Joke is I bet those name calling have never had a gun banned or grandfathered so have no clue what they are even talking about or know what it is like and are not losing one now to learn
Old man always said something like you have to earn your tail feathers to start quacking
Take care
 
#45 ·
Gonna be interesting to see just how much back peddling he'll need to do. I'd vote for Jagmire Singading if he opened up a poutine truck tomorrow, here in the Bay 🤣 😁
 
#65 ·
Just Remember the libtards have another IOC on their books to go once again towards gun owner ship in it it states all firearms MUST only be able to hold 5 ROUNDS , high capacity built in tube mags !?! , .22 removable mags included ! ! Will Be Included in this , no firearm will be allowed do so and must be modified or plugged or turned in for destruction . All center fire and rim fire .

think how many firearms are affected as well all semi auto center fire are on their radar for possible ban or limiting the mags to 3 shots .

and Joe with you high end Remi Semi collection your directly affected or maybe not once again cause seems when you have nothing to offer , you switch topics main stream conversation as its a personal attack or health of you or who the fek ever ! Like really whats that got do with a Conservative Government reversing a IOC ?
BREAKING NEWS ! BREAKING NEWS ! That answer just in ! Its got nothing to do with this conversation ffs, Cripes stay on track or sit on side lines and watch the adults try discuss whats taking place for once . he

back to real questioning , will O'toole reverse it or will he stand by it ? Or was he stating about the 70's ban which i do remember my father , grandfather and uncle ( retired Staff Sgt RCMP) all clearly be pissed off over it , even today my uncle can verify how that was a real chatt show.

What we need is real Government to get tough on real gun crimes , drugs , gangs , sex trafficking etc . Hopefully O'toole being a Veteran and serve this country unlike Drama boy Ski Instructor for the POS he is , cripes really he got in under daddies name OOOPS , mommies influences , I won't go there .

can't understand why certain member s on here , term used loosely ! ! Have to bash the chitt outta everything , stir the pot , crap all over or just plain disagree with anyone , anything or what ever cause does not fit into their train of thoughts . Bored cause they gave long ago and not happy others still hold on and continue to enjoy life .

If ya think I'm calling you out , well I call a spade , a spade when i see it , and i'll call ya a liar at same time .
Hard to be positive and play nice when certain people are just negative constantly and crap all over others beliefs and life enjoyments .

Anyways , my rant for the day , gotta get goose decoys restrung after painting and bagged up for Tuesday opener , it will be alot better out there on Salt marsh than reading so the crap other continue to sling .

my rant of the day !
 
#66 · (Edited)
Just Remember the libtards have another IOC on their books to go once again towards gun owner ship in it it states all firearms MUST only be able to hold 5 ROUNDS , high capacity built in tube mags !?! , .22 removable mags included ! ! Will Be Included in this , no firearm will be allowed do so and must be modified or plugged or turned in for destruction . All center fire and rim fire .

think how many firearms are affected as well all semi auto center fire are on their radar for possible ban or limiting the mags to 3 shots .

and Joe with you high end Remi Semi collection your directly affected or maybe not once again cause seems when you have nothing to offer , you switch topics main stream conversation as its a personal attack or health of you or who the fek ever ! Like really whats that got do with a Conservative Government reversing a IOC ?
BREAKING NEWS ! BREAKING NEWS ! That answer just in ! Its got nothing to do with this conversation ffs, Cripes stay on track or sit on side lines and watch the adults try discuss whats taking place for once . he


back to real questioning , will O'toole reverse it or will he stand by it ? Or was he stating about the 70's ban which i do remember my father , grandfather and uncle ( retired Staff Sgt RCMP) all clearly be pissed off over it , even today my uncle can verify how that was a real chatt show.

What we need is real Government to get tough on real gun crimes , drugs , gangs , sex trafficking etc . Hopefully O'toole being a Veteran and serve this country unlike Drama boy Ski Instructor for the POS he is , cripes really he got in under daddies name OOOPS , mommies influences , I won't go there .

can't understand why certain member s on here , term used loosely ! ! Have to bash the chitt outta everything , stir the pot , crap all over or just plain disagree with anyone , anything or what ever cause does not fit into their train of thoughts . Bored cause they gave long ago and not happy others still hold on and continue to enjoy life .

If ya think I'm calling you out , well I call a spade , a spade when i see it , and i'll call ya a liar at same time .
Hard to be positive and play nice when certain people are just negative constantly and crap all over others beliefs and life enjoyments .

Anyways , my rant for the day , gotta get goose decoys restrung after painting and bagged up for Tuesday opener , it will be alot better out there on Salt marsh than reading so the crap other continue to sling .

my rant of the day !
Other than two ar's and handguns my remaining semi's are fine and will die with me
Yes Walter then people can listen to your expert opinions and vast years of experience and knowledge on firearms . You an adult priceless yes one with the comprehension of a 14 year old and still living in 1970 . If you think you have 40 years experience around firearms at best you may have one year 40 times
Said it before and will say it again cannot even carry my tools and would have to be born again three time to do and own what I have or gain the same experience and great you remember hearing stores from uncles, your dad etc about what went on big difference being there and impacted. Like I said you have NO experience in this matter. Do you even own a prohib??? I bet not but you know what went on PLEASE. Liar about what and you are the one that started the personnel attacks
Christ didnot even know one can sell a gun state side and suggest he say away from it and you say you are a gun smith:rolleyes: even more funny but you know more than someone that has done it a few times
You are not worth any more of my time but keep dreaming. The jealously runs deep in you and like those that know you say a 25 watt bulb in what you think is a 100watt pack and Joe don't waste your time with him and I am not any more
 
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